​​The February 26 earnings report will be pivotal in confirming whether the bullish thesis holds. Analysts expect Q4 revenue to grow 72% year-over-year to $38.1 billion, along with EPS of $0.79. Nvidia needs to surpass these expectations markedly to reignite any sort of rally.

If you're going purely based on history, the trends seen in the stock chart above would suggest that Nvidia stock will be headed higher after it reports earnings on Feb. 26. But smart investors know all too well that past performance shouldn't be used as your sole barometer.

Perhaps no stock exemplified the past year's artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy more than Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Shares of Nvidia were up nearly 90% over the past 12 months through the end of January.