The Atlanta Federal Reserve on Monday produced a new projection that the American economy would shrink by nearly three percent in the first quarter of President Donald Trump's second term.Specifically,

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model had, up until the Feb. 28 update, been forecasting growth between 2-4% in line with most other models. A graph on the GDPNow page lists the "Blue Chip Consensus" average of the top 10 and bottom 10 forecasts at a slight tick more than 2% U.S. GDP growth for Q1 2025.

A model utilized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta now forecasts an economic contraction in the first quarter of this year, according to its most recent update on Friday. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model had,