This paper studies the critical but underexplored role of subcontracting in shaping the spatial and firm-level effects of federal government spending. Using newly available data on defense subcontract ...

The worsening mental health of young workers in the United States drives the disappearance of the U-shape in wellbeing and the hump-shape in illbeing in the last decade. Illbeing declines in age among ...

We measure how frontier research frames what is normatively at stake along the efficiency and equity dimension. We develop and validate an LLM-based measurement pipeline and apply it to 27,464 ...

This short note computes Trade Restrictiveness Index measures for current U.S. trade policy. Building on the ideas of Anderson and Neary (1996, 2005), the Trade Restrictiveness Index is the uniform ...

We study the labor market effects of tenure-dependent severance pay systems that tie firing costs to workers’ accumulated earnings histories. We develop an overlapping-generations search-and-matching ...

Structural economic models, while parsimonious and interpretable, often exhibit poor data fit and limited forecasting performance. Machine learning models, by contrast, offer substantial flexibility ...

In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Health, and the Bulletin on ...

Conditional cash transfer programs have spread to over 60 countries in the past two decades, but little is known about their long-term effects. We estimate the lasting impact of childhood exposure to ...